Here's The Answer, TV Business
I attended a panel at Digital Hollywood after mine yesterday. At the end, the moderator asked the speakers where they thought the internet was heading, what was next for TV, etc. Nobody could answer this definitively. So, I will.
I post a lot about what the internet is and what it’s here to do so I will skip the long explanation about how it’s a information and distribution platform that was created to replace the other information and distribution platforms in our society, and get right to it. In the past, the internet was not able to deliver TV shows well. It is because to do so, it needs a lot of speed and compression. In 2004, this changed. That is why people kept hearing about the potential for internet television but it never materialized. The internet wasn’t ready. Now, it is.
First, there is a very big difference between watching television shows online and watching web video. Unfortunately, these are lumped together in most studies, and therefore, misleading. The actual number of people watching TV shows online is very, very small. This will inevitably change, particularly if the right devices are created. Kind of like how Kindle has helped move people to reading books digitally. It is important for TV business to understand is that watching TV over the internet will have little to do with the computer, and everything to do with devices of all types. Mainly, television sets that look and feel EXACTLY like our current TV sets, only instead of shows being pumped in by broadcast it will be broadband. The experience for the viewer will (or should) be mostly the same. Second to this, other devices can and will be used to watch TV — tablets, handhelds (aka smart phones), etc. The internet was designed to do this from the get go — in really geeky terms this is called “DEVICE AGNOSTIC,” meaning you can access the internet via all kinds of things. Even furry stuffed animals if someone’s so inclined to make them.
More than likely, the new development of tablet PCs currently taking place will usher in the internet-based TV boom versus internet-based TV sets. It doesn’t have to be this way but TV set manufacturers aren’t moving to do it. I would say this will take place between one and three years, depending on how well device makers can help users adapt and adopt once their products hit the market, and what kind of relationships they can create with networks. What must be avoided is automatically assuming that users will not pay for content, that they’ll only pay small amounts, that you need to use the “trialware” (aka, freemium) model, etc. People are trained to do and accept things — TV business MUST understand this, and train its audience accordingly. It should also NOT be made a long tail play — do not screw yourselves by thinking users will only pay for individual shows, etc. TV business is at the start of its market’s disruption and has time and room to make the right decisions. It won’t always be this way. Given this, it would be wise for the industry to start really looking at how to make that move as quick and painless as possible, and lead the users not the other way around. There’ll need to be some thought into how people will access shows and how to migrate networks’ existing audiences — and again, there should not be any assumptions. Chances are, it’ll be exactly as they do now: By going to your channel. Only now your channel is going to be sitting on the internet platform versus broadcast TV. Same world, different platform. I would say that we will see the full migration to internet-based television within five years, eliminating the broadcast TV platform nearly entirely.
The internet is a platform, like TV, print, telephone, etc. and platform business rules apply. Failing to see this and moving accordingly will kill your industry. For TV business, there is still time.
I'll Be Speaking At MIT's Futures Of Entertainment
I’ll be speaking at the Massachusettes Institute of Technology’s “Futures of Entertainment 4” conference next month in Boston. I’m on the “From Franchising to Co-Creation” panel on Friday, November 20. We’ll be talking about the business challenges of creating transmedia projects. Super exciting! If you’re in Boston, come say hi!